Some crowds are wiser than others. The one at Wikipedia is wiser than the one at Daily Kos.
The only thing missing from this post at Daily Kos (and the 1,981 people who Dugg it) is a little due diligence and common sense. A few minutes of searching reveals not a conspiracy by the […]
I’m fascinated by the The Wisdom of Crowds approach to predicting elections (and all sorts of other things).
Prediction markets like the IEM, operated by the University of Iowa, have proven more accurate at predicting elections than traditional polling. As the Wikipedia article on prediction markets explains:
These markets actually have a long and […]
Markets accurately predicted the Miers withdrawal and the Alito selection. Now the markets point to an Alito confirmation.
Well, folks are talking, “hypothetically” of course, about how to pull the Miers nomination. As I write, rumors of a withdrawal don’t seem to be reflected in the market at Newsfutures, which puts her chances at 48%. This is higher than it was earlier last week. For a different measure, check […]
According Newsfutures (a predictive market), Harriet Miers’ chances of becoming Justice Miers in 2005 have fallen in recent days to 29%. So, maybe there is hope after all. Maybe our system is allowing the wisdom of the crowd to overtake the groupthink.
As John Fund describes it today in the Wall Street Journal, the Harriet Miers nomination looks like a classic illustration of the problems with groupthink.
James Surowiecki describes how and why small, homogeneous groups like the President and his closest advisers can make bad decisions when they lack “cognitive diversity,” presume consensus, rely too heavily on […]
Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia, was on C-Span last week. The interview was fascinating. Wales explains how the site functions with a vibrant community of all-volunteer writers and editors massively collaborating to create this extremely useful encyclopedia. Anyone can write an article. Anyone can edit an article.
I know, it sounds […]
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