The Odds on Alito
This is the resume of a Supreme Court nominee. The real fight begins now, and it is the best thing that could have happened to President Bush.
What are the odds it will be successful? Well, it’s early, but both Newsfutures and Intrade have the chances of Judge Sam Alito becoming Justice Sam Alito much higher than Harriet Miers ever achieved (70% and 77% respectively, see charts for live data).
By the way, according The Baron, Intrade had Alito significantly ahead of all others last Friday (27% chance to 16% chance over Michael Luttig). Watch Political Roads for the Alito-meter tomorrow.
Are the contracts on whether the Republicans will exercise the “nuclear option” in 2005 a bargain at $15, up from $6 earlier today?
BACKGROUND: The Odds on Miers
UPDATE: Captain’s Quarters cites evidence that momentum is building for Alito’s confirmation. Junkyard Blog notes that Chris Matthews has called out Democrats on their first attempt to smear Alito and points us to Bare Knuckle Politics for all the ugly details on Alito demonization by the left. An early sign of their desperation?
related articles
- The “Missing” 13th Amendment (July 14th, 2007)
- The Price of GOP Control (October 27th, 2006)
- Withdrawal and Rumors of Withdrawal (October 23rd, 2005)
- The Odds on Miers (October 19th, 2005)
- Groupthink Runs Amok (October 13th, 2005)
November 1st, 2005 at 11:39 am
Betting on Republicans to grow a spine is akin to betting on the French to grow a brain. We can hope, but don’t bet the store.
November 3rd, 2005 at 12:43 am
Thanks for the link-my coverage has begun. You are right that the nomination has gained some strong footing in the last few days.
Alito does have a serious resume to peruse and more than a few cases on file-maybe less reason to dig into his essays from third grade to divine how he might vote on important issues.