The Odds on Miers
On the Hill, Harriet Miers pools are all the rage. It reminds me of the The Zero Game, a great novel by Brad Meltzer about staffers betting on the outcome of legislation.
Time magazine this week has an article about predictive decision markets. These markets take the same phenomenon that keeps sports bookies from losing money and puts it work to predict the outcome of other events. The article links to several interesting sites, including Newsfutures where you can buy and sell contracts on lots of interesting things — including Supreme Court matters.
According these markets, Harriet Miers’ chances of becoming Justice Miers in 2005 have fallen in recent days to 35%. So, maybe there is hope after all. Maybe our system is allowing the wisdom of the crowd to overtake the groupthink.
UPDATE: Wow, since I posted, it has fallen to 29%. These things are interesting to watch because they involve real money. When real money is on the line, both public and inside information tends to make its way to people with a financial interest. Then they trade on it, which moves the price.
For live updates, see the chart above.
For more info on why her stock may be falling, check out these posts at:
related articles
- The “Missing” 13th Amendment (July 14th, 2007)
- The Price of GOP Control (October 27th, 2006)
- The Odds on Alito (October 31st, 2005)
- Withdrawal and Rumors of Withdrawal (October 23rd, 2005)
- Groupthink Runs Amok (October 13th, 2005)
October 23rd, 2005 at 11:34 pm
[…] Well, folks are talking, “hypothetically” of course, about how to pull the Miers nomination. As I write, rumors of a withdrawal don’t seem to be reflected in the market at Newsfutures, which puts her chances at 48%. This is higher than it was earlier last week. […]
October 26th, 2005 at 12:48 am
[…] Background: The Odds on Miers […]
October 27th, 2005 at 4:22 am
I agree with your statement wholeheartedly: “When real money is on the line, both public and inside information tends to make its way to people with a financial interest.” That’s why I extract this information and track it for the 2008 races and the Miers nomination on my site-people with real money on the line follow information…
October 31st, 2005 at 11:32 pm
[…] BACKGROUND: The Odds on Miers Permalink TrackBack […]